Like most of us outside Europe I’ve been watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine with dismay, horror, and an unending feeling of powerlessness.

Unlike many others I have a long and enduring interest in Russia as I studied Russian history and politics at university and wrote my honours paper on the demise of the USSR.

I was drawn to politics because of my fascination of the exercise of power by individuals…and nowhere is this more observable than in history. My particular interest was in Hitler and Stalin.

Odd perhaps for a young girl from provincial New Zealand but there you go. My uncle gave me a first edition English translation of Mein Kampf when I was 14 when I shared with him that

I was interested in politics. I still have it.

Before I explore some of the byways of where the world is now it’s my view that Putin has no Plan B. He’s not interested in what his invasion of Ukraine will do to Ukrainians or his own subjects …

and they are ‘his subjects’. This is Ukraine or bust for him, and he WILL NOT STOP unless he is stopped. The only people capable of doing this is the military. So, we’re in for months of

devastation, obliteration, and death.

 

But why/how did it come to this?

I’ve read hundreds of articles, op ed pieces and commentaries about this, and shared some of my thoughts a few months back in an earlier article.

But things have moved on somewhat since then. Here’s my current perspective.

Russia, and much of Europe, was never part of the Roman Empire that laid the basis of the Western legal system. Compiled by Emperor Justinian and developed in the Napoleonic

code (another short-statured tyrant), civil rights, contract law and land and property registries were well established.

Russia, China, the Middle East and much of Asia never had anything like this. Their societies, religions, legal structures were, and in many cases still are, fundamentally different

for a whole range of reasons. Given my other passion for the ancient and modern Middle East we’re talking here of civilisations that were so far more advanced than Europe for centuries.

Where Europe was in the Dark Ages, intellect, learning, science, philosophy were nurtured and thrived. Indeed it’s because of the efforts of Caliph Harun al-Rashid of the Abbasid dynasty

who established who established the House of Wisdom in Baghdad, then later, in Muslim Spain under the reign of al-Hakam II, the Umayyad Caliph of Cordoba that the Western world’s

Enlightenment occurred…the ancient Greek and Roman texts were translated into Arabic (then later Latin) in these courts. Indeed, the Muslim philosopher Ibn Rushd, better known as Averroes,

was called ‘The Commentator’ as he had written comments on Aristotle more extensively than anyone else. It was through the translation of Averroes’ comments into Latin that Aristotle was

introduced in Europe. But I digress.

 

Across Europe the divine right of monarchies ruled for centuries. Peasants were property, feudalism exploited generations of families and communities. Enlightenment was a long time

coming while early industrialisation exploited those who were exploitable even more. America had its own go at serfdom and had a civil war over it.

 

The liberal, democratic values many in the Western world hold so dear are pretty new in the tide of history.

 

The fractures caused by internal and external revolutions from the 1700s through to the end of World War II were brutal, killed hundreds of millions of mostly young men and many more

millions of civilians. I have a book, Hitler and Stalin, Parallel Lives, that lists the estimated total loss of life across the two World Wars and Spanish and Russian civil wars: 58.3 million.

Add in another five million from the Russian famine and another 15 million + who died as a result of Stalin’s collectivisation campaign and in the Gulag and you end up with a staggering

75 million.[1] These numbers don’t include the millions who died or were killed in China’s Great Leap Forward, the hundreds of regional and local conflicts across Asia, India and South America.

 

The post war/post Cold War world

In a way, the period post World War II, has perhaps seen less worldwide loss of life than any previous period. This is not to dimmish for one moment the regional and local wars that

have been waged around the world have resulted in hundreds of thousands of lives lost in war, famine and that worst of euphemisms ‘ethnic cleansing.’

 

In the current context of Russia, the Ukraine and Europe, it’s interesting to note that when Bush and Reagan worked with Gorbachev to open up Russia one of their undertakings

was that they would not extend NATO east of Germany. So, it was the on the evening of 25 December 1991 the USSR ceased to exist, and the new independent Russian state

came into existence.

What no-one could envisage was what would replace Communism and how NATO would actively welcome a range of countries into its fold (include map). Boris Yeltsin, the man

who took over from Gorbachev (after a failed coup d'état in August 1991) was not really aware of a minor player Vladimir Putin who, as it turned out, was more than a match for him.

 

As with many periods of civil unrest/revolution, when the Soviet Union was no longer the KGB fraternity was best placed and organised to take over, just as Lenin and Stalin had

been when the Romanov dynasty ended at Yekaterinburg on 12 October 1918. Interestingly, many in the Army joined with the revolutionaries, disillusioned at the Tsar’s leadership

and lack of supplies during World War I.

 

Putin’s rise

And, here’s where the mid-level KGB operative, Putin came into his own. At aged 33 he received his first overseas posting as a case officer to Dresden, far from the heart of the KGB

residence in East Berlin. He saw first-hand the consequences of the fall of the Berlin Wall (I must have missed him by months) and a few years later in 1990 was back in Moscow, then

Leningrad. By 1998 Putin had been back in Moscow for several years and took on his third new job in the Kremlin, first deputy director of the presidential administration and then

Director of the FSB.

 

In 1999 the state of Russia was parlous. The war in Chechnya left that country in chaos and criminality. Russia was also confronting NATO’s actions in Serbia and the prospect of military

invention to protect Kosovo. Russia’s leaders resented the fact that the US and its expanding NATO alliance were acting as if they could impose their will on its former satellites without

regard to Russia’s interests. And they had a point.

 

On 31 December 1999 Putin was anointed as Yeltsin’s successor as Acting President ahead of elections in March 2000. While the rest of the world was focused on the Y2K bug Putin

focused on how to win the Presidential election and rule Russia. Sydneysiders like me were getting ready for the Sydney 2000 Olympics

 

No Communist, Putin looks back to the time of Russia’s greatness (Peter the Great) and has been determined to reignite a pride in its people. Through a ruthless efficiency he co-opted or

killed the oligarchs who became overnight billionaires when Russia’s public assets were privatised. You were either with Putin or not. Those who were not were assassinated

(Nikolai Glushkov, Yuri Golubev, Scot Young, Alexander Perepilichnyy, Mikhail Lesin, Badri Patarkatsishvili, Boris Berezovsky) along with others who got in the way

(Alexander Litvinenko, Anna Politkovskaya, Stephen Moss, Stephen Curtis) and more. Roman Abramovich was one of the few to survive (unlike his Sibneft partners Badri Patarkatsishvili and

Boris Berezovsky) and has a close relationship with Putin.

 

The allure of Russia

As globalisation and the western liberal tradition seemed to bring the trifecta of democracy, growth, interconnectedness governments and leaders around the world dared dream

of a new world order where Western liberal traditions would ensure no more war, the elimination of poverty, a multinational and multi-lateral community of nations and companies.

And so it seemed for just a few short decades. I remember visiting the Berlin Wall a few months after it had been breeched (it took a while for it to be removed altogether) and

thinking this was the start of a new era.

 

The rise of China, the rise of Russia, their integration into the western world was encouraged. Countries, companies and politicians courted and linked with Russia and China –

engagement was the mantra. For Europe engagement with Russia provided significant upsides. Billions flowed into the European capitals, London earning the moniker Londongrad

as so many Russian oligarchs and billionaires set up residence there. So enamoured with the Russian roulette that successive UK governments (Tony Blair and David Cameron) shut

down investigations to an increasing number of deaths. There was too much money at stake.

 

Separately, European countries had become increasingly dependent on Russian oil and gas. Smart move by Putin . . . control the energy supply, secure more leverage. Why no-one saw

this coming and took action is beyond me.

Putin’s power

Putin knew the power of the media and swiftly took control of Channel One from Boris Berezovsky and Badri Patarkatsishvili (oligarchs who had secured major interests in Aeroflot, Sibneft –

Russia’s largest oil company – Avtovaz and a range of media and other companies).

In his first year he travelled to 18 countries and projected an image of ‘the new Russia’, one that was

eager to engage the world, opened up the country’s resources to international companies especially in the energy sector, softened his stance on the expansion of NATO and supported the

US campaign to fight the Taliban by supporting the Northern Alliance. Bolstering the power of the FSB in 2006 he introduced new laws explicitly giving the FSB license to kill Russia’s enemies

on foreign soil…the first being Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive polonium in a London Hotel. Roll forward to August 2020 as the world saw Alexei Navalny poisoned with a Novichok

nerve agent and then jailed after returning to Russia.

 

Putin realised way before many other world leaders did that the 21^st century is one in which there is a geopolitical struggle between three main world powers: Russia, China and the USA.

As Helen Thompson author of Disorder: Hard times in the 21^st Century shared with journalist Tom McTague:

‘the crisis on Ukraine’s border today is part of a wider – and much older – issue of how to manage the nations between Russia and Germany, now only in the new setting of the 21^st century,

in which the European Union cannot defend itself and a wider Western military alliance is led by a hegemon preoccupied with China.’[2]

 

Moving on from history but not forgetting it

As someone who researches, writes and reads a lot of history I am the first person to say that history matters – well understanding history matters as it shapes what every one of us

thinks about the world and our own place in it.

With the end of the Cold War and the ever-increasing interdependence of national economies there was a strong belief that liberal democracy had ‘won’ and that peace would prevail.

Now, we’re in a different world, one where deglobalisation has been occurring since the 2008 GFC with trading blocs forming; where economic rivalries are now merging with political,

moral and other rivalries; where the USA has pulled back from much of its global protective shield prompting nations including Australia to seek to bolster existing alliances and creating

new ones; where nations are polarising from within as more and more people feel they are not seen, respected and appreciated.

 

Putin has called on a wide range of political skills, autocratic leadership, national pride (a return to Russian exceptionalism), terror, assassinations and energy economics to assert his vision

for and of Russia. We in the West might not like it, but we may well have to comes to terms with it. As David Brooks writes:

‘Today many democracies appear less stable than they did, and many authoritarian regimes appear more stable.

‘Modern authoritarian regimes now have the technologies that allow them to exercise pervasive control of their citizens in ways that were unimaginable decades ago.

‘Autocratic regimes are now serious economic rivals to the West.

This is a global struggle between the forces of authoritarianism and the forces of democratisation. Illiberal regimes are building closer alliances with one another…At the other end, democratic

governments are building closer alliances with one another. The walls are going up.’[3]

[It’s just that this time they’re not made of blocks and concrete (although in some places they are.]

 

The near future

Part of me is in disbelief watching the unfolding was in the Ukraine. I actually never thought I’d see a war of this scale play out on the evening news. I am surprised that I am surprised when

I’ve watched the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and others on the daily news over the past decades.

 

As Putin’s army slogs and bombs its way through the Ukraine there’s only so much lying, killing and corruption one man can lead and oversee, well I hope that’s the case. At some point it will

implode as Russia and Russians remain locked out of much (but not all) of the global economy and more and more young Russian men never come home. When is anyone’s guess, and hope is

not an action plan…it’s waiting for someone else to take action.

 

And what can ‘the West’ do? Build and maintain a unified response, re-orientate away from Russian wheat, fertiliser, oil and natural gas. Keep the Russian government and all its manifestations

and the oligarchs out of the global financial system. Document human rights abuses in the Ukraine for the time when Putin is put on trial.

 

At a different level Western, liberal democratic leaders and polity need to understand that globalisation hasn’t delivered the trickle down that it was purported to…more like a vacuuming up of

wealth by a select few. Increasing inequality has fuelled nationalism around the world – for many politicians they’ve captured this nationalism and reframed it as patriotism –Trump, LePen,

Bolsonaro, Putin, Xi Jinping.

 

We all need to care a lot more about our communities and what we’re collectively doing to support those who have been left behind economically, who are suffering due to climate change-led

catastrophes, who are older, vulnerable and our youth who will inherit the impacts of our actions and decisions.

 

Some further reading

From Russia with Blood, Heidi Blake

The Oligarchs, Wealth and Power in the New Russia, David Hoffman

The New Tsar, The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin, Steven Lee Myers

Berlin 1961,

The House of Widsom. How the Arabs transformed Western Civilisation, Jonothan Lyons, Bloomsbury

East to West. The untold story of the modern world, SBS series, Madman.com.au

 

[1] Hitler and Stalin. Parallel Lives, Alan Bullock, Fontana Press, 1991, pages 1085-1087

[2] Putin’s no throwback – he’s a very modern leader, Tom McTague, The Atlantic, reproduced in the AFR, 18 February 2002

[3] The Global culture wars have begun. David Brooks, New York Times, through AFR, 11 April 2022